Global carbon emissions will increase if changes are not instigated and all, including the oil and gas industry, will lose out, Norwegian energy giant Statoil said on Thursday.
Statoil published its report named "Energy Perspectives 2015" which was prepared by a team of Statoil analysts in the fields of economic affairs, energy markets and climate change.
Statoil said the need for energy is increasing with the growth in world population and with more people joining the middle classes.
"However, a continued parallel increase in carbon emissions as a result of this prosperity is not sustainable in the long term and without a change everyone will lose," said Statoil.
"We believe that carbon efficiency will be an important competitive advantage in our industry," said Eldar Saetre, president and CEO of Statoil.
Statoil prepared three scenarios for the future of energy up to 2040 - Reform, Renewal and Rivalry.
The "reform" scenario is where the countries meet their self-imposed commitments and their energy policy ambitions which have been presented in the run-up to the climate summit in Paris in December 2015. However, despite fulfilling their commitments, changes are not sufficient to limit global greenhouse gas emissions. The scenario is based on the possibility that the total energy consumption rises by 0.9 percent annually, while the economy grows by 2.8 percent each year.
"This scenario shows a very slight increase in global coal consumption and strong growth in renewable energy," the report said.
The "renewal" scenario assumes that significant and rapid changes in energy consumption will be required especially in transportation and electricity production.
According to the "renewal" scenario, the demand for natural gas will increase by 15 percent globally and oil demand will drop slightly under 80 million barrels per day with the current global daily consumption of around 90 million barrels per day. Due to falling production in the current oil fields, there will be a need for 50-60 million barrels of new oil production to meet the demand.
"In 2040, global carbon emissions will be reduced by 39 percent from 2012 and will still decline through even greater improvements in energy efficiency and a strong increase in renewable energy, primarily at the expense of coal," the report said.
This scenario also expects a stronger growth in nuclear power and more carbon capture and storage than in the "reform" scenario.
The "rivalry" scenario consists of power struggles and a world dominated by conflicts.
"Rivalry" has the lowest global economic growth, the highest consumption of coal and the least growth in renewable energy.
Statoil is one of six European oil and gas majors, including Total and Shell, who have recently called world governments to introduce carbon-pricing systems.
Energy Perspectives is published every year by the Norwegian company and announces its strategic and commercial decisions and prognosis for the future.
By Murat Temizer
Anadolu Agency
murat.temizer@aa.com.tr