Wheat prices surge as Mideast turmoil raises global food insecurity fears

Wheat prices are heading for their biggest weekly increase in two months as escalating conflict in the Middle East fuels concerns over rising food inflation and deepening global supply disruptions.

Benchmark Chicago wheat futures have climbed about 4.5% this week, driven by a combination of geopolitical tensions and adverse weather conditions in key producing regions including the US.

A new report published this week by aid organization Mercy Corps warns that the economic shock from the conflict has already “locked in” food insecurity outcomes for 2026 and 2027 in some of the world’s most vulnerable countries.

The group said disruptions to fuel, fertilizer and shipping have rapidly spread to import-dependent economies such as Somalia, Ethiopia and Pakistan, affecting critical planting seasons now underway.

According to the report, global fertilizer prices surged during a key window for farmers, while fuel costs in some markets jumped by as much as 150% within days, increasing transport and irrigation expenses.

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a vital route for energy and trade — has fallen by more than 90%, severely constraining agricultural supply chains.

Those disruptions are already having humanitarian consequences. In Somalia, fuel price spikes have doubled the cost of water in drought-affected areas, while aid shipments to Sudan are being rerouted around southern Africa, adding thousands of miles and weeks to delivery times.

The World Food Programme estimates that an additional 45 million people could be pushed into acute hunger globally as a result.

Analysts say the impact on food production may persist even if conditions improve. Mercy Corps cited data from the Food and Agriculture Organization showing that supply disruptions lasting more than 40 days can alter farmer behavior, prompting reduced fertilizer use or smaller planting areas — decisions that ultimately shape future harvests.

“The food security consequences of this war are already written into harvests that have not yet been planted,” said Melaku Yirga, Mercy Corps vice president for Africa.

“Even if prices were to stabilize tomorrow, the most important agricultural decisions have already been made. Farmers are already planting less, or not at all, because they can’t afford the inputs,” he added.

Meanwhile, drought conditions are compounding the problem. More than half of the US is currently experiencing drought, with dry weather also affecting wheat-growing regions in Australia and the Black Sea, raising further concerns about global supply.

The combined pressures of conflict, climate conditions and rising input costs are intensifying concerns that food prices will continue to climb, with the heaviest burden falling on countries already facing severe food insecurity.