War-linked damage to Middle East energy infrastructure may cost up to $58B: Rystad Energy

Repair and restoration costs for energy-linked infrastructure damaged in the Middle East war could reach as much as $58 billion, Rystad Energy said Wednesday, which indicated oil and gas facilities may account for up to $50 billion of the total.

The consultancy estimated that total repair and restoration spending across affected energy-linked facilities at between $34 billion and $58 billion, with an average estimate of $46 billion, including about $5 billion for industrial, power and desalination assets.

Rystad said the conflict is becoming a broader test for the global energy supply chain, as rebuilding efforts compete for the same equipment, contractors and logistics capacity already committed to LNG and offshore projects launched since 2023.

“Repair work does not create new capacity; it redirects existing capacity,” Karan Satwani, senior analyst for supply chain research at Rystad Energy, said in the report, warning that the shift could delay projects and add inflationary pressure beyond the Middle East.

The estimate is up sharply from Rystad’s initial $25 billion projection published three weeks ago, reflecting a wider damage footprint after continued strikes before hostilities largely subsided following the announcement on April 8 of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran.

The company said the main constraint on recovery is not financing, but access to long-lead equipment, specialist contractors and logistics networks, with recovery timelines diverging across countries and asset types.

Downstream refining and petrochemical assets account for the largest share of expected repair costs, followed by midstream and upstream facilities. Overall oil and gas repair costs are seen at $30 billion to $50 billion, while non-hydrocarbon assets such as power stations, desalination plants, aluminum smelters and steel facilities could add another $3 billion to $8 billion.

Rystad said Iran and Qatar are likely to bear the heaviest burden.

Iran has the highest number of affected facilities, with repair costs potentially reaching $19 billion under a high-damage scenario. Damage spans gas processing, petrochemicals, refineries, fuel storage and export infrastructure, while sanctions-related restrictions on Western contractors and equipment are expected to prolong restoration.

In Qatar, damage is more concentrated but technically more complex, centered on Ras Laffan Industrial City, where several LNG trains were affected along with disruption at the Pearl gas-to-liquids facility.

Rystad said repair work in Qatar may overlap with QatarEnergy’s North Field expansion, drawing on similar engineering teams, fabrication yards and site crews and potentially slowing progress on expansion projects.

On Monday, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, said more than 80 energy facilities in the Middle East have been damaged since the Feb. 28 start of the Iran war, with over one-third classified as severely or very severely hit.

Birol said restoring regional energy supply to where it was before the crisis could take as long as two years, underscoring the depth of the disruption across the region’s oil and gas system.