Turkey's economic growth forecast revised for 2017

Nomura, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan increase Turkey's growth estimate for 2017

By Ovunc Kutlu


A number of multinational financial firms and global investment banks on Monday revised Turkey's growth forecast for 2017, after the country's second quarter growth rate came strong.

The Turkish economy grew 5.1 percent in the second quarter of the year, compared to the same period last year, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) announced earlier on Monday.

After the strong growth figure, Japanese financial firm Nomura revised Turkey's growth estimate for 2017 to 5.5 percent, from 4.2 percent.

"[...] investment spending -- particularly construction -- and net exports were the biggest contributors to the headline year-on-year growth rate," Nomura said in a statement.

The firm added that the 10.5 percent year-over-year growth in net exports strongly contributed to the economic growth, which was significantly higher than 2.5 percent of growth in imports.

U.S.-based financial services firm Morgan Stanley also increased its forecast for Turkey's growth rate for this year to 4.3 percent, from 3.3 percent.

The company pointed out strong lending growth, and said the biggest contributions to economic activity came from private consumption, exports and capital expenditure.

Another U.S.-based multinational bank J.P. Morgan also revised its 2017 growth estimate for the Turkish economy, to 5.3 percent, from 4.6 percent.

"Thanks to the rapid recovery in export performance and the continued strength in construction, the Turkish economy secured 5.1 percent year-over-year growth in the second quarter of the year," the firm said in a statement.

"This was better than our forecast of 4.8 percent."

U.S.-based investment bank Goldman Sachs, however, kept Turkey's growth forecast for this year unchanged at 5 percent, but added that it expects the Turkish economy to grow around 7 percent in the third quarter of 2017.

"Growth is also likely to remain moderate as we go into 2018," the bank said.