Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic may take few months to return to pre-war levels

The global energy chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, will see a gradual increase in ship traffic following the US-Iran peace deal, but the traffic of pre-war levels could take several months as uncertainties remain over the reopening of the vital waterway.

The war in the Middle East, beginning with the US and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, concluded with an agreement following negotiations. Pakistani Premier Shehbaz Sharif said the US and Iran reached a deal on ceasing all military operations, including those in Lebanon.

US President Donald Trump said the Strait of Hormuz will be fully opened on Friday following the agreement, while the majority of mines in the region will be diffused.

An average of 130 commercial ships transited the waterway per day before the war, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

The average daily ship traffic in the strait fell over 90% following the start of the war, with some days seeing only a single ship pass through.

Some five commercial vessels transited the strait on June 10, five on June 11, seven on June 12, one on June 13, and five on June 14, according to data from the analytics firm Kpler.

On June 14, one of the last ships to transit the strait was the Malta-flagged Disha, carrying aboard 132,000 cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar to India.

While the US-Iran deal was announced early Monday, there was no significant increase in commercial vessel traffic through the strait on Tuesday, with only two vessels transiting the waterway on Monday.

The Saint Kitts and Nevis-flagged dry cargo ship Kaiser transited the strait with 27,000 tons of cargo using the “Iran route” established in Iranian territorial waters, en route from Iraq’s Umm Qasr Port to Oman.

The Honduran-flagged oil tanker Argo Maris departed from Iran’s Bandar Abbas port with 6,700 tons of petroleum products aboard and transited the strait through the Iran route. The destination of the ship remains unknown.

Industry representatives describe the process as highly fragile as uncertainties over vessel transits through the strait remain despite the peace deal.

Mine threat

The mine threat in the region remains a source of concern as it renders the security situation risky, according to the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO).

Currently, some 500 commercial vessels are waiting in the Gulf to transit the Strait of Hormuz.

The passage of the waiting vessels is expected to be completed first, following the disruption that lasted over 100 days.

These passages are estimated to reach 50% of pre-war levels within 30 days.

The 118 tankers currently loaded in the Gulf are expected to be among the first vessels transiting the strait within the next 10-15 days so long as no issues arise over the implementation of the US-Iran agreement.

The number of ships passing through could rise from 15 per day to around 40 by the end of the month, with tankers making up about 60% of the total.

The pace at which ships re-enter the Gulf will be decisive towards normalizing the strait, following the passage of backlogged ships. While shippers are expected to proceed with caution, re-entries into the Gulf are estimated to be gradual.

The number of tankers entering the Gulf could reach 12 per day by the end of the first 30 days, around 50% below pre-war levels.

Dimitris Ampatzidis, maritime risk and compliance manager at Kpler, said in a recent briefing that some 500 commercial vessels are estimated to be in the Gulf, and even if the strait is reopened, the traffic will not return to normal immediately.

Ampatzidis said the waiting ships to leave the region, complete their voyage, and return to pick up new cargo will take around two to three months, while a return to pre-war production and export in some parts of the Middle East could take longer depending on the country and conditions.

*Writing by Emir Yildirim in Istanbul