OPEC crude production drops 7.9 million bpd in March amid Middle East disruptions

Crude oil production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) fell by around 7.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in March 2026 compared with February, due to disruptions caused by US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran and Iran's retaliatory attacks across the region.

In March, OPEC's total output stood at about 20.79 million bpd, according to the group's latest Monthly Oil Market Report.

The steepest production declines were recorded in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait.

Iraq's crude output dropped by roughly 2.56 million bpd to about 1.63 million bpd, while Saudi Arabia's production fell by about 2.3 million bpd to 7.8 million bpd.

Output in the UAE's declined by approximately 1.53 million bpd to 1.89 million bpd, and Kuwait's production decreased by around 1.37 million bpd to 1.2 million bpd in March.

Iran's crude oil production also fell by 182,000 bpd to about 3.06 million bpd amid US-Israeli airstrikes on the country that began on Feb. 28.

Among OPEC members, only Venezuela and Nigeria recorded increases in daily production during the month. Venezuela's output rose by 79,000 bpd to 988,000 bpd, while Nigeria's production increased by 22,000 bpd to 1.46 million bpd.

The US and Israel carried out airstrikes on Iran starting Feb. 28. Iran has retaliated with drone and missile strikes targeting Israel as well as Jordan, Iraq and Gulf countries hosting US military assets.

The conflict has also disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil chokepoint through which about 20% of global supply passes.

Global oil demand forecasts remain unchanged

OPEC kept its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 unchanged, projecting an increase of 1.38 million bpd year-on-year, bringing total demand to 106.53 million bpd.

"An upward revision in 1Q26 is made for China, based on actual data received amid better-than-expected performance in the country. The demand growth for 2Q26 is revised down for both the OECD and non-OECD, driven mainly by a slight transitory weakness in oil demand growth, given ongoing developments in the Middle East. However, this weakness is expected to be compensated in the second half of the year," OPEC said.

In 2026, most of the growth is expected to come from non-OECD countries, where demand is seen rising by around 1.26 million bpd to 60.46 million bpd, led by China, Other Asia and India, and supported by Africa, the Middle East and Latin America.

Demand in OECD countries is projected to rise by just 130,000 bpd to 46.07 million bpd, "with the Americas leading growth and some additional support from OECD Europe, while oil demand in OECD Asia-Pacific is projected to slightly decline."

For 2027, OPEC expects demand to grow by around 1.34 million bpd, reaching 107.87 million bpd. This is expected to reach 61.7 million bpd in non-OECD countries, with an increase of 1.24 million bpd, and 46.17 million bpd in OECD countries, with a rise of around 100,000 bpd.

By Firdevs Yuksel