ISTANBUL
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) kept its 2026 global growth forecast unchanged at 2.9% but revised down its 2027 outlook to 3% on Thursday, as tensions in the Middle East drive up energy prices and disrupt supply chains.
In its interim Economic Outlook report, titled Testing Resilience, the OECD said near-halted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to regional energy infrastructure have triggered sharp price increases, disrupted key commodity supplies, and increased financial market volatility.
The organization said the scope and duration of the tensions remain “highly uncertain,” warning that persistently high energy prices would raise business costs and add to inflationary pressures.
Despite maintaining its 2026 forecast, the OECD said the projection still points to a marked slowdown from 3.3% global growth in 2025.
For Türkiye, the OECD lowered its 2026 growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 3.3% and cut its 2027 estimate by 0.2 percentage points to 3.8%. It also forecast inflation in Türkiye at 26.7% in 2026 and 16.9% in 2027.
The OECD said inflation across G20 economies is expected to reach 4% this year, 1.2 percentage points above previous estimates, before easing to 2.7% in 2027, as energy price pressures gradually subside.
It warned that prolonged disruptions to exports from the Middle East could push energy prices higher than expected, deepen supply constraints in key commodities, lift inflation further, and weigh more heavily on global growth.