ISTANBUL
As the US-Israel war on Iran intensifies, one location has drawn growing attention from analysts and energy markets alike: Kharg Island, the strategic hub through which most of Iran’s oil exports flow.
Located in the northern Gulf, the island functions as the backbone of Iran’s oil export system and a vital source of government revenue. Roughly 90-95% of Iran’s crude exports – about 1.7 million barrels per day last year – pass through Kharg before heading to international markets.
The island is connected by pipelines to Iran’s major onshore oilfields and hosts large deep-water terminals capable of loading some of the world’s biggest oil tankers. This infrastructure allows Iran to efficiently ship crude to buyers, particularly in Asia.
But the same concentration of export capacity also creates a strategic vulnerability.
“Iran’s export system relies heavily on a single strategic location. Any sustained disruption at Kharg would severely limit Iran’s ability to export oil and quickly hit government revenues,” Yesar Al-Maleki, a Gulf analyst at the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES), told Anadolu.
“This vulnerability was evident during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, when the island was repeatedly targeted because of its strategic importance.”
Despite its importance, Kharg has so far remained untouched in US-Israeli attacks, which analysts say is likely a deliberate decision to limit escalation and avoid a severe global energy shock.
“First, such an attack would likely provoke a far more significant retaliation from Iran across energy infrastructure of Gulf states,” said Al-Maleki.
Among Iran’s potential targets could be facilities that support alternative oil export routes in the region, such as Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline or the UAE’s pipeline network leading to the port of Fujairah, he said.
Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow with the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, also emphasized the island’s importance to global oil markets.
“If it were targeted and the terminal damaged or destroyed, it would mean Iranian barrels – 1.3 million barrels per day during peace times but under sanctions – not making it to market and that would impact oil prices,” he said.
“The long-term loss of 1.3 million barrels per day would place the market under significant pressure.”
- Strike, seizure and potential impact
Reports have also surfaced that US and Israeli officials have discussed the possibility of seizing Kharg Island, though analysts say such an operation would be far from simple.
According to Al-Maleki, while US and Israeli forces likely have the ability to damage the island’s facilities through airstrikes, occupying it would be far more complex and riskier.
“Kharg is well defended, and maintaining a long-term military presence there would likely expose US forces to significant risk. In practical terms, the US could disrupt exports through airstrikes or maritime operations without needing to physically occupy the island,” he said.
Al-Maleki noted that the island has proven resilient before. During the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, it was repeatedly attacked but Iran managed to repair the facilities and resume exports.
Quilliam said capturing Kharg could effectively divide Iran’s oil industry, separating production from exports.
“The country could continue to produce crude, but the US would control its export to China. Neither party would want to negotiate to reach a solution.”
He added that while the island could potentially be seized militarily, the wider consequences could be severe.
“As a military operation, the island could likely be seized with relative ease, but it would send shockwaves through the oil markets and also be a major cause of concern for the Gulf Arab states – as it would set a dangerous precedent of the US (and Israel) capturing critical energy assets in the region,” he said.
Quilliam also warned that any US forces stationed on the island would remain vulnerable to Iranian retaliation.
“Finally, were the US to seize the island, it would be very challenging for the US to find a suitable off-ramp for leaving Kharg unless it is able to secure its war aims,” he said.
Al-Maleki also noted another possible longer-term strategic reason for the US and Israel to avoid a strike.
“If the conflict eventually results in political change in Iran, and a friendlier government takes charge, destroying the country’s main export terminal could complicate efforts to stabilize a post-conflict economy. Oil revenues would be essential to rebuilding the country and restoring economic stability.”
Also, he added, the island carries symbolic political importance inside Iran.
“Historically, foreign involvement in Iran’s oil sector has been deeply sensitive domestically. Directly attacking or seizing Iran’s main oil export hub could strengthen nationalist sentiment and rally domestic support around the flag rather than weakening it.”