Hormuz traffic remains constrained as 15 vessels transit strait amid intensified US naval blockade

• At least 2 of them, Meda and Axon I, are listed under US sanctions records, while Nova Crest remains under UK and EU restrictions

Commercial ship traffic remained at a virtual standstill around the Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours as of 1500GMT Monday, with only 15 vessels appearing in shipping data, as a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran teetered on the brink of collapse following the seizure of an Iranian-flagged ship.

A selected sample showed eight west-to-east movements and seven east-to-west vessels during a period characterized by extreme volatility and soaring war risk insurance premiums.

West-to-east traffic included Meda, G Summer, Reyfa, Seaway, Sanmar Herald, Aroya, Nova Crest, and the cruise liner Mein Schiff 4. Of these, the Nova Crest and G Summer were observed navigating the northern corridor under high-risk conditions.

East-to-west traffic included Sawqrah, Axon I, Atlantic Harmony, Soufia I, Starway, Gulfmoon, and Black Maya. The majority of these vessels were signaled as in transit, though several, including Atlantic Harmony, appeared to be navigating with caution near the blockade line.

The vessel mix indicates that while crude flows have largely halted, regional transport and specialized tankers continue to test the passage. Shipping data identified the Sanmar Herald as a VLCC tanker and Meda, G Summer, and Axon I as LPG tankers.

Starway and Seaway were identified as chemical/oil product tankers, while Reyfa and Soufia I were listed as container and general cargo vessels, respectively. Notably, the Mein Schiff 4 and Aroya represented a rare presence of passenger ships in the high-risk zone.

Destination data showed a focus on the UAE and South Asian ports. Meda, G Summer, and Nova Crest were all signaled for Khor Fakkan, UAE. Axon I was headed for Sharjah, while Starway was listed for Hamriyah, and Seaway signaled Sohar, Oman. The India-flagged Sanmar Herald was en route to Visakhapatnam.

Sanctions records from the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) show that at least two vessels in the sample are under US sanctions: Meda and Axon I, both LPG tankers. Additionally, the Nova Crest (also known as Nero) remains under UK and EU sanctions for its previous involvement in the Russian oil trade.

Separately, ship tracking platform MarineTraffic said on US social media company X that six cruise ships cleared the Strait of Hormuz during a brief reopening, including Celestyal Discovery, Celestyal Journey, MSC Euribia, Mein Schiff 5, Mein Schiff 4, and Aroya.

The heightened tension follows an announcement by US Central Command (CENTCOM) on Sunday that US naval forces seized the Iranian-flagged cargo ship TOUSKA in the Gulf of Oman after it reportedly refused to comply with blockade directions.

CENTCOM said Monday that American forces have directed 27 commercial vessels to turn around or return to an Iranian port since the naval blockade of Iranian ports began on April 13.

The figure marks an increase from the 25 vessels reported earlier and follows Sunday's interception of the Iranian-flagged cargo ship TOUSKA in the northern Arabian Sea, which was disabled by USS Spruance after its crew refused to comply with warnings for over six hours.

The market has responded sharply to the weekend’s escalations. Brent crude prices jumped approximately 5.5% on Monday, reaching $95.3, undoing the brief stability seen during Friday's short-lived reopening.