High energy prices could slow Dutch job growth amid conflict

High energy prices could slow job growth in the Netherlands if tensions in the Middle East continue, according to calculations by the Dutch unemployment benefits agency UWV, Dutch broadcaster NOS reported on Tuesday.

The agency examined labor market prospects through to 2028 under two scenarios: one in which energy prices fall quickly and another in which they remain high. In the less favorable scenario, there would be 75,000 fewer jobs over three years than in the more optimistic outlook.

"There will still be growth, but much less than in previous years," the UWV said.

According to Rob Witjes, head of Labour Market Information and Advice at the UWV, companies are becoming more cautious amid global uncertainty. The biggest impact would be felt in industry, transport and storage, while temporary employment agencies would also be affected.

"Many people who start working through a temporary employment agency work in sectors such as transport and industry," Witjes said.

Higher energy costs are also expected to weigh on purchasing power, affecting sectors such as hospitality.

Healthcare, ICT and specialized business services are expected to continue growing. If energy prices fall again, job growth should recover. “It is all temporary,” said Witjes. “We assume that it will all rebound in 2028, at least if the war is over by then.”

Negotiations between the US and Iran remain ongoing, President Donald Trump said early Tuesday, just hours after Iran and Israel agreed to halt attacks on one another that threatened to shatter a shaky ceasefire.

Trump said the talks with Tehran did not stop during the escalation in violence, signaling that a deal to formally end the war could be reached within "one or two days from now, but I think it's going well."