Energy prices rise again as US-Iran ceasefire uncertainty revives supply fears

Energy prices jumped on Tuesday as uncertainty about a fragile US-Iran ceasefire and the outlook for renewed talks stirred new concerns over global supply disruptions.

Brent crude was at around $98.50 a barrel as of 1840GMT, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate climbed to around $89.60.

European natural gas prices also climbed 8.2%, with TTF futures dropping to around €43.7 ($51.3) per megawatt-hour as markets priced in a lower risk for deeper supply disruptions.

The gains came as markets reassessed the risk that diplomacy may fail to secure an extension of a two-week ceasefire, which is due to end Wednesday evening Washington time.

US President Donald Trump said the truce had been violated “numerous times” by Iran and signaled that an extension was “highly unlikely” if no agreement was reached beforehand.

Additional doubts emerged after a planned US delegation departure for Pakistan for a second round of face-to-face talks with Iran was delayed Tuesday due to “additional policy meetings” in Washington, according to US media reports.

Vice President JD Vance, who is expected to travel to Islamabad, remained in Washington to attend the meetings at the White House, according to a US official cited by The New York Times. A White House official cited by The Washington Post said the departure was postponed for “additional policy meetings” involving Vance, without giving a new timeline.

Pakistan said Tuesday that Iran’s decision to attend talks with the US remained unresolved. “Formal response from the Iranian side about confirmation of delegation to attend Islamabad Peace Talks is still awaited,” Pakistan Information Minister Attaullah Tarar wrote on US social media company X.

The two sides held a first round of high-level face-to-face talks in Pakistan earlier this month, but those negotiations ended without a deal.

Energy markets have remained highly sensitive to developments around the ceasefire and the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global crude and fuel shipments, with each sign of diplomatic strain feeding concerns about tighter supply.

Oil prices initially plummeted to stabilize around $90 - $95, while TTF futures fell to around €38 after the US and Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz was opened last week, which lasted a short time.