EXPLAINER - ‘Peace by deterrence’: What do China’s top 5 new weapons tell us?

Marking its victory against Japanese aggression, as well as end of World War II, 80 years ago, China unveiled lavish weaponry, with most of them seen for first time

- China's top new weapons include nuclear capable ICBM Dongfeng-61, DF-17 hypersonic missiles, YJ-12 anti-ship cruise missiles, fighter jet J-15T, unmanned drones, and early warning system KJ-600 AWACS

- New Chinese military capabilities ‘are all dimensional, from intercontinental to regional, from strategic to tactical, covering air, sea, space, cyber space,’ analyst Jingdong Yuan tells Anadolu

- Dongfeng nuclear-capable missiles ‘are unquestionably targeted’ at the US, says Chien-Yu from Taiwan’s National Defense and Security Research

- While ‘message is loud and clear’ to ‘not mess’ with China, ‘new capabilities demonstrate China’s military-civil fusion is delivering concrete results,’ says Jingdong from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

- Military parade ‘underpinned peace by deterrence’ with 'deep geopolitical implications,’ according to strategic affairs analyst Pravin Sawhney

ISTANBUL 

China’s unveiling of new military equipment on its Sept. 3 "Victory Day" has shed light on Beijing’s mounting challenge to the world’s largest military power, the US, encompassing all spheres of warfare, with at least five new weapons.

Security experts and observers say the new weaponry could well challenge the US, but also serves as “deterrence” for peace.

These new military capabilities “are all dimensional, from intercontinental to regional, from strategic to tactical, covering air, sea, space, cyber space,” Jingdong Yuan of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) told Anadolu.

According to Jingdong, SIPRI's director of China and Asia Security Program, the military parade revealed “quite a few new weapons or new versions of weapons.”

What are new 5 top weapons?

He identified new version of Dongfeng (DF) inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBM), including DF-5C and DF-61, the latter with up to 10 MIRVed warheads, new DF-26D anti-ship missiles and DF-17 and YJ-21 hypersonic missiles with a speed of Mach 6 to 10, new and improved versions of carrier-based fighter jets such as J-35 and J-15T, anti-ship cruise missiles such as YJ-12, artificial intelligence (AI)-equipped drones, air-defense missiles, and early warning system KJ-600 AWACS, among others.

MIRVed, an independently targetable reentry vehicle, is a ballistic missile payload containing several warheads, each capable of aiming at a different target, while the DF series are capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

The top five among the paraded weaponry, according to the SIPRI scholar, “are DF-61 ICBM, DF-17 hypersonic, YJ-12, J-15T, unmanned drones, and KJ-600 AWACS.”

Other unveiled weaponry includes LY-1 laser weapon -- a giant laser that could burn or disable electronics or even blind pilots, as well as the fifth-generation stealth fighter jet J-20.

Military trucks also carried a wide range of drones, some of them AI-powered, including submarine drone identified as AJX-002.

Beijing also unveiled the GJ-11 stealth attack drone, known as “loyal wingman.” The drone can fly alongside a manned fighter jet.

Security analysts say China has learned from the ongoing Ukraine war about how drones have played a critical role in Kyiv's battle with Moscow.

The unmanned platforms, including AI-driven unmanned submersibles like the AJX-002 “have seen accelerated development since the start of the Ukraine war in February 2022, as unmanned weaponry can erode enemy defenses,” Chien-Yu Shih, associate research fellow at the Taipei-based Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told Anadolu.

‘Strike capability across US mainland’

Chien-Yu said the DF missiles series “are unquestionably targeted at the US, not only at US military bases in the (island territory of) Guam and (the state of Hawaii), but the DF-5C is (also) specifically capable of striking the US mainland.”

“The Chinese DF (ICBM) covers medium and long range, and can be armed with multiple nuclear warheads,” he added.

China, marking its victory against Japanese aggression, as well as the end of World War II, 80 years ago, unveiled this weaponry as part of the nuclear triad, which included JingLei-1 air-based long-range missile, JuLang-3 submarine-launched intercontinental missile, DF-61 land-based intercontinental missile, and a new type of DongFeng-31 land-based intercontinental missile.

Beijing referred to the weapons as China’s strategic “ace” power, underscoring their role in safeguarding the nation’s sovereignty, security, and dignity.

According to SIPRI, China’s nuclear arsenal has grown faster than that of any other country, reaching an estimated 600 warheads by early 2025.

Beijing’s nuclear stockpile has been expanding by around 100 warheads per year since 2023, noted the think tank known for its military studies.

China also showcased a new type of unmanned underwater vehicle, an unmanned ship, and an unmanned mine-laying system for the first time in the maritime unmanned combat formations at the military parade.

The audiences sitting on the two sides of the main avenue at Tiananmen Square in Beijing also watched “robotic wolves,” which could be deployed for reconnaissance, sweeping mines, or eliminating enemy soldiers.

These unmanned systems have “abilities” for covert deployment in blockade operations, autonomous detection and identification, and swarm networking for coordinated attacks, making them a force to be reckoned with in naval warfare, according to Chinese state media.

‘Military-civil fusion delivering concrete results’

Through these military capabilities, “China wants to show it continues to develop and deploy new weapons systems as part of military modernization efforts that enhance its deterrence and combat capabilities to safeguard its national interests, from territorial integrity to its determination to reunify with Taiwan,” according to SIPRI scholar Jingdong.

“The message is loud and clear: ‘don’t mess up with us -- we have the capabilities and resolve to defeat any aggressors',” Jingdong said.

These new capabilities “demonstrate China’s military-civil fusion is delivering concrete results,” he stressed.

In Chinese governance system, Chinese Communist Party holds final say in military development, including operations, led by President Xi Jinping himself, as the chairman of Central Military Commission.

“These capabilities allow China to consolidate and expand its military supremacy beyond the first island chain to the second and support its anti-access and area-denial strategy,” said Jingdong, referring to the wider South China Sea.

Chien-Yu and Jingdong agree that Chinese military development is “US-centered."

The military parade, showcasing its armaments, “aims at countering US deployments in the Pacific,” said the Taipei-based academic.

“Clearly, these capabilities and their deployment and future use are US-centered as the bilateral strategic rivalry intensifies. In hypersonic weapons systems, intermediate-range missiles, and military drones, China has made great strides, while the US is playing catch-up, except (for) the last,” said Jingdong.

‘Peace through deterrence’ yet ‘lack of combat’

The military parade “underpinned peace by deterrence,” Pravin Sawhney, a strategic affairs analyst, said in a post through the US social media company X.

He said Beijing holding the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and its second Victory Day Parade “complemented one another.”

“The first was about development with sovereign equality. The second underpinned peace by deterrence. Both events were exceptional in scope and grandeur with deep geopolitical implications,” said New Delhi-based Sawhney.

Meanwhile, Chien-Yu, the academic from Taiwan’s National Defense and Security Research, said the US military's “strength lies in its combat experience (despite a recent decline in American weapons production capacity).”

“China now possesses certain advanced military technologies, yet its actual deterrence and operational capabilities remain unclear,” Chien-Yu noted.

But, he added: “The United States ought to be concerned that should it need to wage war simultaneously in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Pacific, it may struggle to cope with China's military capabilities.”

He also said Beijing's military parade was also “effectively a colossal ‘sales pitch,’ aimed at potential buyers," which “would undoubtedly bolster China's global influence.”

80 gunshot salutes and 80,000 peace doves

Beijing brought together 26 foreign leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who stood alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping, who drove past the massive weapons, as well as thousands of soldiers – broadcast live across the world.

Neat- and clean- camouflaged soldiers, tanks, drones, hypersonic missiles, stealth fighters, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and nuclear triad were highlights of the show by the People’s Liberation Army, which, Xi said, “will remain reliable in safeguarding national sovereignty while also contributing to global peace.”

Some 45 echelons participated in the parade, including China’s UN peacekeeping forces, who started marching with 80 gunshots – signifying 80 years since the war.

Some 80,000 doves were released during the parade, as Xi said: “Humanity again faces a choice between peace and war, dialogue and confrontation, win-win cooperation and zero-sum games.”