ANKARA / ISTANBUL
The Trump administration’s “aggressive” approach in the Western Hemisphere, marked by its intervention in Venezuela, could affect Washington’s rivalry with China and Russia in both the Americas and Asia, experts say.
Following the detention of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro during a US military intervention, Washington has argued that its dominance in the Western Hemisphere will not be questioned.
While references are increasingly being made to the Monroe Doctrine in US policy on leadership in the region, analysts say the Trump administration has gone beyond this framework with what has been described as the “Donroe Doctrine.”
Ashok Swain, head of the Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Sweden’s Uppsala University, said a more “aggressive” US approach in the Western Hemisphere would confront Washington with additional variables and reduce constraints imposed by rules or diplomacy, with possible implications for Asia.
“When the US shows it is willing to use force unilaterally in its own neighborhood, countries like China and Russia will assume the same logic applies elsewhere, including Asia,” Swain said.
He said Beijing would view the intervention in Venezuela as proof that “power matters more than law,” adding that this could make China feel more justified in its claims in the South China Sea and regarding Taiwan.
Swain added that Russia would interpret the situation “as confirmation that Western talk of rules is selective.”
Tougher US stance may backfire in Latin America
Swain said weakening respect for sovereignty and international law in other regions would undermine the argument that Taiwan deserves special protection.
“The US could certainly move toward a tougher approach against Chinese and Russian influence in South America, especially in the current climate of rivalry and suspicion,” he said.
He said this could include stronger sanctions, political pressure, and covert or indirect actions against governments perceived as aligned with Beijing or Moscow.
However, Swain warned that such a strategy could backfire, stressing that a heavy-handed US involvement could push Latin American countries closer to China and Russia while fueling regional resentment and instability.
New US approach does not signal withdrawal from Asia
Walter C. Ladwig, a political scientist at King’s College London, said the Trump administration appears to view securing the homeland and the Western Hemisphere as a prerequisite for maintaining US credibility abroad.
“Interpreted this way, the approach does not necessarily signal a retreat from Asia, but it does imply tradeoffs in resources, force design, and attention, with a likely shift away from large, fixed forward garrisons toward more distributed and survivable deployments supported by long-range strike, undersea forces, and space-based systems,” Ladwig said.
From Beijing’s perspective, he said, this could be seen either as a strengthening of the US strategic base or as a “reduced willingness to accept risk close to China’s periphery,” depending on concrete posture decisions rather than rhetoric.
For Russia, Ladwig said asymmetric actions would remain important as a way to draw US focus back toward domestic defense and the Western Hemisphere.
The implications for India would be largely indirect, he said, adding: “New Delhi is likely to judge whether Washington can sustain credible Indo-Pacific engagement while reallocating attention elsewhere.”
Possible US steps against Chinese, Russian influence
Ladwig said Chinese and Russian influence in South America remains largely commercial and political rather than overtly military, suggesting the US could pursue selective measures.
These could include scrutiny of critical infrastructure projects, controls on sensitive technology transfers, and expanded intelligence cooperation.
On Washington’s possible policy direction, Ladwig said: “The (US) administration does appear more open to a tougher stance, but that does not necessarily translate into a uniformly confrontational policy.”
Manoj Joshi, a senior fellow at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation, said the US may adopt a firmer approach toward Chinese and Russian influence in South America.
He said Washington’s National Security Strategy defines the US as the “main power” in the Western Hemisphere and makes clear that it does not want “outside powers” owning assets or exercising influence in the region.