Politics, archive

Sata death prompts fears of Zambia power struggle

Experts cite a jostling for power within the ruling party and among the opposition

30.10.2014 - Update : 30.10.2014
Sata death prompts fears of Zambia power struggle

By Francis Maingaila

LUSAKA

President Michael Sata's death on Tuesday – and the jostling for power within his ruling Patriotic Front (PF) party and among the opposition – could lead to political instability in Zambia, experts fear.

"There is a serious power struggle between the two main rival camps within the PF leadership in preparation for the succession," Choolwe Beyani, a political scientist at the University of Zambia, told Anadolu Agency.

He noted that, from the time Sata had fallen ill until his death, the ruling party had witnessed a number of power struggles.

"If nothing is done to solve the problem, we anticipate trouble," said Beyani.

The Zambian government on Wednesday officially confirmed Sata's death in London one day earlier, naming Vice-President Guy Scot as acting president for a 90-day period.

In a televised address to the nation, Secretary to the Cabinet Roland Msiska urged the people of Zambia to remain calm, united and peaceful.

Sata, 77, had left the country last week – only days before its 50th independence anniversary – for medical checkup in London, leaving his presidential powers in the hands of Defense Minister Edgar Lungu.

Sata became Zambia's fifth president on September 23, 2011 after defeating incumbent president Rupiah Banda of the Movement for Multiparty Democracy, which had ruled Zambia for 20 years.

Beyani explained that one camp within the PF was made up of those who were close to the late president and who had known he would not to live much longer and had therefore made advanced preparations for elections.

"These are mainly Bemba-speaking officials, including Finance Minister Alexander Chikwanda, former defense minister Geoffrey Mwamba, and Sata's son, Mulenga, who is Lusaka mayor and PF chairperson for Lusaka province," he said.

According to Beyani, the second camp comprises acting president Scott, PF Secretary-General Wynter Kabimba, and former tourism minister Sylvia Masebo.

"This struggle is threatening not only peace, but also the economic advancement of the country in so far as the opposition groups are willing to take up arms, as we have witnessed in the recent past," warned the expert.

He expressed fear that, if physical confrontations between the two rival groups – which had already begun when Sata was still alive – were not controlled, they could spill over to the rest of the country.

-No favorite-

Alex Ngoma from the school of political science at the University of Zambia is also concerned by the level of political intolerance, which, he said, was the main source of violence.

"Tolerance is one of the main bedrocks of peace," he told AA. "Unless our leaders begin to pump a sense of tolerance in the hearts of people, we are heading into total destruction."

"Violence we are witnessing in the recent past is the main side effect of the lack of political tolerance in the country," he added.

Political analysts believe all the main political parties have an equal chance in the upcoming presidential by-election.

"The current political atmosphere does not pit any party as a clear favorite because the main political parties have continued to lose and win seats in the areas where they were not expected to win or lose," Neo Simutanyi, executive director of the Center for Policy Dialogue in Lusaka, told AA.

"This will make it difficult for one political party to claim an outright victory in the forthcoming presidential elections," he said.

Simutanyi explained that the ruling PF would stand no chance of winning if the infighting and internecine power struggle continued.

"If only the opposition can unite and field one candidate, the presidential poll will go to the opposition," he said. "But this is unlikely to happen because all political parties in the opposition will try by all means to go it alone."

Zambia has over 30 registered political parties, but only 12 are very active in terms of political participation.

The five main parties are the United Party for National Development (UPND), the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD), the Forum for Democracy and Development (FDD), the Alliance for Democracy and Development (ADD) and the National Restoration Party (NAREP).

"They have to rally behind one strong political party in the forthcoming presidential polls," Simutanyi said.

If this happens, he added, the ruling party could take advantage of the divisions within the opposition.

"This will widen the chances of the ruling PF to win the polls," Simutanyi asserted.

"In this case, we are likely to witness a repeat of what happened in 2008, where the ruling MMD then capitalized on the opposition fragmentation to win the presidential by-election after the death of Dr. Patrick Levy Mwanawasa," Simutanyi recalled.

 

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